badly the coronavirus has damaged the economy is tricky. Pessimists diagnose a far worse recession than that which followed the financial crisis. Optimists predict a sharp recovery, pointing to robust banks and housing markets.
That is a stark change from just a few weeks ago. In mid-April, as they reported their first-quarter results, America’s top four lenders unveiled $24.1bn in provisions for credit losses, a jump of $18.7bn compared with the first quarter of 2019. JPMorgan increased its provision by nearly $6.9bn, hitting in one quarter the level it had reached in six during the financial crisis. Europe’s lenders also booked bad news.
Relief may be premature, though. Central-bank and government action has bought borrowers time. Cheap state-backed loans are keeping firms and households afloat. No one knows how many borrowers will find themselves overburdened with debt when normal payment terms resume later in the year. That is especially true of consumer borrowers, up to a fifth of whom have asked for payment holidays.
The great LAG.